I wanted to go through my Dukascopy contest statistics a little more. Generally if someone wins the lottery, they’re considered lucky because that is a 1 in 10^8 chance. If someone scores perfect on the SAT, they’re considered smart(and they are a shoe in to top colleges), because that is a 1 in 10^4 chance. Lets assume for a second that SAT scores, lottery winnings and forex contest performance is by pure luck(they’re not…. I’m just making this base assumption due to the fact that most people assume forex contest performance is by pure luck when they dismiss my contest results).

On the Dukascopy contest out of 5000 people that have participated I’m the only one to score in the 99.9th percentile in performance more than once for a total of 4 times. This comes out of a total of 27 months participation. The chance that I would have scored once in the 99.9th percentile is .27%. The chances that I would have scored in the 99.9th percentile 4 times is 1 in 1.8 million. Roughly 1/100th the chance of scoring perfect on the SAT’s.

On the Dukascopy contest out of 5000 people that have participated I’m the only one to score in the 99.9th percentile in pip points more than once for a total of 4 times. This comes out of a total of 27 months participation. The chance that I would have scored once in the 99.9th percentile is .27%. The chances that I would have scored in the 99.9th percentile 5 times is 1 in 69 million. Roughly the chance of winning the lottery jackpot.

I participated in the CNBC million dollar challenge back in 2011. What I like about the statistics for this contest is that there is a much larger pool of contestants(200,000) and portfolios per person(5 per person). This makes for a total of 1 million portfolios. Out of 200,000 people on the contest, I was the only one to manage to get all 5 of my FX portfolios in the top 5(out of 1 million portfolios). I managed to also do this after 4 weeks of trading(the contest was 5 weeks total). The chance of putting 1 portfolio in the top 5 is 1 in 200,000. The chance of putting 5 portfolios in the top 5 is 1 in 3*10^26. So my trading contest performance over 1 month was the equivalent of winning the lottery jackpot 3 times in a row(no one in human history has scored the lottery jackpot more than once… forget about 3 times in a row). I did bad in the fifth and final week of the contest but still managed to keep all 5 of my portfolios in the 99.9th percentile. The chance of putting 1 portfolio in the 99.9th percentile is 1 in 1000. The chance of putting 5 portfolios in the 99.9th percentile is 1 in 10^15.